Constellation Energy Corp (CEG) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered GAAP EPS of $2.71 and Adjusted Operating EPS of $2.44, with FY 2024 Adjusted EPS of $8.67 “far exceeding” the twice-revised guidance top end ($8.40). Management reaffirmed FY 2025 Adjusted EPS guidance of $8.90–$9.60 per share, underscoring confidence in the outlook .
Revenue and operating income were $5.38B and $0.97B in Q4, respectively; versus Q3, top line and earnings moderated seasonally, but materially improved YoY from a weak Q4 2023 (GAAP loss) .
Key drivers: favorable nuclear PTC portfolio results and favorable labor/contracting/materials, partly offset by market/portfolio conditions and nuclear outages; operational KPIs remained strong (94.8% nuclear capacity factor excl. STP/Salem; total nuclear generation ~45.5 TWh) .
Strategic catalysts: signed 20-year Microsoft PPA supporting the Crane restart, issued a $900M 30-year green bond (including nuclear), completed $1B buybacks in 2024 (now $2B cumulative), increased dividend 25% and expect another 10% growth in 2025; also announced the Calpine acquisition to combine zero-emission nuclear with dispatchable gas and the nation’s leading competitive retail platform .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Delivered strong Q4 and FY results, with FY 2024 Adjusted EPS of $8.67 “far exceeding” the top end of the revised range and reaffirmed FY 2025 Adjusted EPS of $8.90–$9.60; CEO highlighted Constellation’s “unmatched capabilities” to meet rising power needs (AI, data economy) .
- Strategic momentum: 20-year Microsoft PPA for Crane; $900M green bond (nuclear); Moody’s upgrade to Baa1; $1B 2024 buybacks (cumulative $2B since 2023; $1B authorization remaining) .
- Operational excellence: nuclear capacity factor of 94.8% in Q4 (excl. STP/Salem) and 94.6% for FY 2024; total nuclear generation ~45.5 TWh in Q4; renewables capture and dispatch match rates remained high over the year .
What Went Wrong
- Q4 operations faced unfavorable market/portfolio conditions and impacts from nuclear outages, partially offsetting positives; gas/pumped hydro dispatch match rate dipped vs. prior year (93.2% vs. 97.5%) .
- Q4 revenue declined YoY ($5.38B vs. $5.80B) and sequentially vs. Q3 ($6.55B), reflecting seasonal/market factors; non-refueling outage days improved YoY, but refueling outage days were higher (66 vs. 56) .
- Renewables energy capture modestly trailed prior-year Q4 (95.7% vs. 96.3%), and ERCOT supply/sales volumes were lower YoY in Q4 (5,659 GWh vs. 6,174 GWh) .

Financial Results

Headline financials by quarter (oldest → newest):

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Operating Revenues ($USD Billions)	$5.80	$5.48	$6.55	$5.38
Operating Income ($USD Billions)	$(0.07)	$1.10	$1.47	$0.97
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.11)	$2.58	$3.82	$2.71
Adjusted Operating EPS (non-GAAP, $)	$1.74	$1.68	$2.74	$2.44

Segment/region supply (GWh) – Q4 YoY:

Region	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Mid-Atlantic	16,783	16,409
Midwest	24,360	24,571
New York	6,709	6,477
ERCOT	6,174	5,659
Other Power Regions	13,283	11,899
Total Supply/Sales	67,309	65,015

Key KPIs:

KPI	Q4 2023	Q4 2024
Nuclear Generation (GWh)	45,563	45,494
Nuclear Capacity Factor (excl. STP/Salem)	95.1%	94.8%
Refueling Outage Days	56	66
Non-refueling Outage Days	7	3
Dispatch Match Rate – Gas & Pumped Hydro	97.5%	93.2%
Renewables Energy Capture	96.3%	95.7%

Non-GAAP adjustments (Q4): Adjusted EPS excludes mark-to-market on hedges and fair value items, NDT-related items, plant retirements/divestitures, decommissioning-related activities, pension/OPEB non-service, ERP costs, environmental liabilities changes, acquisition-related costs, income tax-related adjustments, and noncontrolling interest effects; after-tax reconciling items include, for example, $(0.77) from unrealized FV adjustments and +$0.56 decommissioning-related activities in Q4 2024 .

Drivers: Q4 Adjusted EPS primarily reflected favorable nuclear PTC portfolio results and favorable labor/contracting/materials, partially offset by market/portfolio conditions and nuclear outages .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted Operating EPS (non-GAAP)	FY 2025	$8.90–$9.60 (initiated Jan 10, 2025)	$8.90–$9.60	Maintained
Dividend per Share Growth	2025	n/a	Expect +10% in 2025	New
Quarterly Dividend Declared	Q1 2025	n/a	$0.3878 per share; payable Mar 18, 2025; record Mar 7, 2025	New
Capital Investments	2025	n/a in PR (see IR deck noted)	>$2.5B planned (ex-Calpine)	New

Management also referenced providing expectations for Adjusted O&M and capital for 2025–2026 in the January 10, 2025 Calpine acquisition investor materials (IR site) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was not available in the document set. Themes below reference Q2 and Q3 transcripts for trajectory and Q4 press release for current context.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
AI/data centers & co-location	Q2: Detailed case for co-location, FERC technical conference; growing grid-connected 24/7 CFE sales; PJM auction signals tightening market and urgency for hyperscalers . Q3: Principles for co-location (grid-first in emergencies, fair grid charges, DR role), transmission positioning (ComEd export), front-of-meter vs BTM timing .	Signed 20-year Microsoft PPA supporting Crane restart; management positioning to serve data economy demand .	Ongoing (strategy reinforced)
Crane Clean Energy Center (Three Mile Island Unit 1 restart)	Q3: Announced Microsoft 20-year PPA; restart plan, regulatory path; $1.6B capex, target 2028 ISD .	PPA reiterated; separate press release: milestones ahead of schedule, hiring, equipment, NRC filings progressing .	Execution progressing
PJM capacity market, DR & reliability	Q2: Higher sustained capacity pricing expected; DR will reemerge with proper price signals . Q3: Reiterated DR potential, capacity market reforms, urgency for pricing clarity .	Noted strong operations; no new call commentary; strategy supported by reaffirmed 2025 guide .	Ongoing
Capital allocation	Q2: $1B buybacks YTD; strong cash/IG balance sheet . Q3: No buybacks in quarter due to timing; intent to resume when feasible .	2024 buybacks $1B; cumulative $2B; $1B authorization remains; dividend +25% and planned +10% in 2025; issued $900M green bond .	Shareholder returns continue
Regulatory/legal (FERC/PJM)	Q2: FERC tech conference constructive; policy education on co-location . Q3: Narrow ISA ruling; pursue regulatory/commercial paths in parallel .	No new call; press release reiterates strategy; Calpine acquisition framed to meet demand reliably .	Ongoing

Management Commentary

CEO (press release): “Constellation provides the reliable and sustainable energy needed today and is investing billions of dollars to power our country for decades to come… As we look forward to closing the Calpine acquisition later this year, Constellation will create new capabilities that will increase product offerings across America” .
CFO (press release): “Backstopped by our strong balance sheet and industry leading generation and commercial businesses, we’re affirming our 2025 adjusted operating earnings guidance range at $8.90–9.60 per share. Independent of our pending acquisition of Calpine, Constellation will invest over $2.5 billion in 2025…” .
Non-GAAP framing (8-K): Adjusted Operating EPS excludes mark-to-market on economic hedges/FV items, NDT-related items, plant retirements/divestitures, and other specified items; reconciliation tables provided for Q4 and FY .
Operations: Nuclear fleet produced 45,494 GWh in Q4 (vs. 45,563 GWh); capacity factor (excl. STP/Salem) 94.8%; outage days detailed; renewables capture/dispatch match rates reported .

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available in the document set. The following themes from the Q3 2024 call remained relevant:

Front-of-meter vs. behind-the-meter: pursuing both paths in parallel; timing depends on transmission configuration; customers prioritize speed-to-market .
Transmission positioning: ComEd zone cited as having robust export capability; new transmission under construction broadens lanes to move power .
Demand response: at appropriate capacity prices, DR can address peak-hour capacity needs; need timely RPM auctions to send price signals .
Grid charges for front-of-meter interconnections: “not a dollars issue… a speed issue”; co-location can minimize broad socialization of costs versus grid siting .
Capital allocation cadence: intent to be active in buybacks when not MNPI-restricted; comprehensive financial update typically provided with Q4/annual call .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates (EPS, revenue) for Q4 2024 were unavailable due to SPGI rate limits at query time; therefore, we cannot present a quantified beat/miss vs. consensus for this quarter (we attempted retrieval but did not receive data) [Values intended from S&P Global, but unavailable at time of request].
Implications: With FY 2024 Adjusted EPS of $8.67 well above the twice-revised range top end and FY 2025 guidance reaffirmed at $8.90–$9.60, estimate revisions for 2025+ are likely to focus on: (i) updated commercial margin and PJM capacity assumptions, (ii) nuclear PTC dynamics vs. gross receipts, (iii) Crane/other nuclear uprate timing and load growth exposure, and (iv) integration of Calpine upon close .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Q4 performance capped a year of substantial outperformance: FY 2024 Adjusted EPS $8.67 (>top-end of revised guidance), with Q4 Adjusted EPS $2.44; Q4 GAAP EPS $2.71 vs. $(0.11)$ YoY .
2025 outlook intact: Adjusted EPS guidance of $8.90–$9.60 reaffirmed; management plans >$2.5B of 2025 capital (ex-Calpine), targeting reliability and growth .
Structural demand catalysts: Microsoft 20-year PPA underpins Crane restart; separate update shows restart execution ahead of schedule across hiring, equipment, and NRC filings—supporting medium-term growth visibility .
Balance sheet and returns: Issued a $900M 30-year green bond (including nuclear), received Moody’s Baa1 upgrade, completed $1B 2024 buybacks ($2B cumulative; $1B remaining auth), and raised the dividend 25% with 10% growth expected in 2025—supportive for total shareholder return .
Operating resilience: Nuclear fleet continued to deliver high-capacity factors; Q4 outages elevated (planned), but KPIs remain strong; gas/hydro dispatch match rate dipped YoY, highlighting some operational variability to monitor .
Strategic combination: Calpine acquisition broadens dispatchable capacity, retail scale, and geographic reach; management projects material accretion and enhanced cash flow to reinvest in growth and decarbonization (post close) .
Watchlist: PJM capacity market reforms, DR participation, interconnection speed, and regulatory clarity on co-location remain key levers influencing medium-term margin trajectory and deal cadence (no new Q4 call commentary, but themes persist from Q2/Q3) .

References

Q4/FY 2024 press release (incl. highlights and EPS):
8-K with full financials, reconciliation, and statistics:
Q3 2024 press release (trend context):
Q3 2024 earnings call transcript (themes/Q&A):
Q2 2024 earnings call transcript (themes):
Q2 2024 metrics (from later PR tables):
Crane Clean Energy Center update (Feb 19, 2025):
Calpine acquisition release (Jan 10, 2025):